External Seminar by Michael Lechner

24-01-2019 11:30 to 24-04-2019 12:30
Class room 0.013, Sint-Pietersplein 7
Economics Seminars
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Modified Causal Forests for Estimating Heterogeneous Causal Effects

Michael Lechner (University of St. Gallen) 

Please register by 22 January at https://doodle.com/poll/ehwrq6t3vhayqymn.



Uncovering the heterogeneity of causal effects of policies and business decisions at various levels of granularity provides substantial value to decision makers. This paper develops new estima­tion and inference procedures for multiple treatment models in a selection-on-observables frame­work by modifying the Causal Forest approach suggested by Wager and Athey (2018). The new esti­mators have desirable theoretical and computational properties for various aggregation levels of the causal effects. An Empirical Monte Carlo study shows that they may outperform previously suggested estimators. Inference tends to be accurate for effects relating to larger groups and con­servative for effects relating to fine levels of granularity. An application to the evalua­tion of an active labour mar­ket programme shows the value of the new methods for applied research.

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